T. V. Oblakova (Bauman Moscow State Technical University) :


Articles:

519.2 Comparative analysis of modeling methods and time series forecasting based on the theory of fractal Brownian motion

Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Alekseev D. S. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-4-4862


The work summarizes the results obtained in the course of the implementation of Bachelor's final qualifying work and is devoted to the methods of simulating and applying the fractional Brownian motion in the problems of time series analysis. Software modules have been implemented to generate trajectories of fractal Brownian motion using the methods of stochastic representation, Cholesky decomposition and Davis-Hart. Algorithms vere compared in terms of their complexity and the quality of the resulting trajectories. The Hurst exponent was estimated by the Minkowski and R/S analysis methods. An approximation of time series by fractal Brownian motion using a power function is proposed and implemented for the subsequent application of a linear prediction algorithm based on the normal correlation theorem. It has been established that with the help of the presented approximation it is possible to achieve a satisfactory forecast of the exchange rate for several values ahead.


Облакова Т.В., Алексеев Д.С. Сравнительный анализ методов моделирования и прогнозирования временных рядов на основе теории фрактального броуновского движения. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 4, с. 48–62



621.311.61:621.3.014.2 Mathematical modeling of coaxial electrogenerating elements

Loshkarev A. I. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2015-1-316


The article presents a developed mathematical model of electric describing the coaxial electrogenerating elements (EGE) with isothermal cathode and a variety of ways for current collecting. To analyze their internal state and output parameters in the arc mode we used a two-parameter local linear current-voltage characteristic (CVC). It was shown that in the case of one-sided current collection maximum power of EGE and generated magnetic field asymptotically approach to their maximum values as the length of the electrodes goes into infinity. In the case of versatile current collection maximum values of these parameters can be achieved at the final length of the electrodes. In both methods of the current collection the acceptable value of EGE electrical power loss of 25% due to electrode non-equipotentionality was achieved at their universal critical length. The calculation of which is presented.


Loshkarev A., Oblakova T. Mathematical modeling of coaxial electrogenerating elements. Маthematical Modeling and Coтputational Methods, 2015, №1 (5), pp. 3-16



539.3 Near-resonant modes of the moving load in the plane problem of elasticity theory for a half-space with a thin coating

Kaplunov J. D. (Keele University), Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Prikazchikov D. A. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2014-1-5767


The study deals with the plane stationary problem of elasticity theory on the motion of a vertical concentrated load along the surface of an elastic half-space with a thin coating. The authors investigated modes in the surface layer at speeds close to the resonant speed of the surface wave. The research was done within the long-wave asymptotic model for the Rayleigh wave in the case of an elastic coated half-space. The modes are classified according to the ratio between the velocity of the load and the resonance speed and to the dispersion coefficient of linear coverage. The study discovers the modes having radiation from the source. The results obtained can be generalized to more complex physical properties of the coating material, including the effects of anisotropy, viscosity and prestraining.


Kaplunov J., Oblakova T., Prikazchikov D. Near-resonant modes of the moving load in the plane problem of elasticity theory for a half-space with a thin coating. Маthematical Modeling and Coтputational Methods, 2014, №1 (1), pp. 57-67



519.2 Numerical research of persistent time series based on the ARFIMA model

Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Kasupovich E. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-4-114125


The work is devoted to methods for detecting long-term memory in financial time series. Using the method of analysis with the help of the original program code, a number of values of the real financial index S & P500 were studied, estimates of the Hurst index were obtained, and persistence was demonstrated. To solve the problem of predicting the future values of a series, the ARFIMA model is proposed, which is a generalization of the standard ARIMA model and involves the use of a fractional differentiation opera-tor. A two-stage algorithm for constructing a forecast for a series of logarithmic profits is presented and implemented. It is shown that the use of the ARFIMA model improves the quality of the forecast in comparison with ARIMA for all standard metrics.


Облакова Т.В., Касупович Э. Численное исследование персистентных временных рядов на основе модели ARFIMA. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 4, с. 114–125.



519.2 Polynomial chaos and regression based on KolmogorovGabor polynomials: comparative modeling

Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Pham Q. (-)


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-4-93108


The application of the generalized expansion of polynomial chaos (PC) and models based on Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials in regression problems is considered. When choosing PC expansion, the Wiener-Askey scheme was used, which sets the correspondence between the feature distribution law and the orthogonal polynomial basis. To calculate the expansion coefficients, non-intrusive methods were used: least squares, elastic network, as well as Ivakhnenko's inductive evolutionary algorithm. Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials are used as a reference function of a polynomial neural network. Model errors and performance were calculated on a test set. Models were compared on a linear transport problem under uncertainty: the diffusion coefficient and drift were modeled by uniformly distributed random variables. It is shown that with a small interval of variation in the values of random variables, both models give good efficiency, but the PC model demonstrates a smaller spread of errors and is faster in time. For the de-cay equation with random coefficients distributed according to the Gaussian law, the influence of the correlation of these coefficients on the rate of convergence is studied. It is shown that with dependent coefficients, the best performance is observed in higher-order PC models. On the basis of comparative modeling, it has been established that the use of PC is unambiguously preferable in the following cases: a small dimension of the space of input features, a known law of distribution of input data, and correlated features. It is also shown that the use of PC with a large dimension of the space of input features is inefficient due to the rapid increase in the number of terms in the expansion, leading to a sharp increase in the time to process the task. In this case, the regression model based on the Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials in combination with the GMDH turned out to be clearly preferable.


Облакова Т.В., Фам Куок Вьет. Сравнительное моделирование на основе многочленов Колмогорова-Габора в задачах полиномиального хаоса и регрессии. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023, № 4, с. 93–108.