T. V. Oblakova (Bauman Moscow State Technical University) :
Articles:
Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Alekseev D. S. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-4-4862
The work summarizes the results obtained in the course of the implementation of Bachelor's final qualifying work and is devoted to the methods of simulating and applying the fractional Brownian motion in the problems of time series analysis. Software modules have been implemented to generate trajectories of fractal Brownian motion using the methods of stochastic representation, Cholesky decomposition and Davis-Hart. Algorithms vere compared in terms of their complexity and the quality of the resulting trajectories. The Hurst exponent was estimated by the Minkowski and R/S analysis methods. An approximation of time series by fractal Brownian motion using a power function is proposed and implemented for the subsequent application of a linear prediction algorithm based on the normal correlation theorem. It has been established that with the help of the presented approximation it is possible to achieve a satisfactory forecast of the exchange rate for several values ahead.
Облакова Т.В., Алексеев Д.С. Сравнительный анализ методов моделирования и прогнозирования временных рядов на основе теории фрактального броуновского движения. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 4, с. 48–62
Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Kasupovich E. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2024-4-111127
The paper is devoted to methods to the comparative study of parametric and nonparametric methods for detecting anomaly in time series of various nature. To solve the problem of anomaly detection in series with unknown statistical characteristics, a model based on the estimation of Kulbak-Leibler divergence between distribution laws is considered and implemented. The Kullback-Leibler importance estimation procedure (KLIEP) is applied to calculate the parameters of the linear model. A two-stage algorithm for solving the obtained conditional optimization problem by the gradient descent method was implemented using the original software code, and the cross-validation method was used to evaluate the model's learning ability. A comparative analysis of the quality of fault moment detection by the considered KLIEP method and the classical cumulative sum model (CUSUM) was carried out. When working with simulated data, insignificant variations in such characteristics of KLIEP and CUSUM models as the average time of fault detection and false alarm rate were found. For the real power mode fault detection task, both procedures showed 1-2 false alarms, but KLIEP obtained a narrower time window (5 time intervals vs. 20), which in principle allows much faster and without loss of accuracy anomaly detection. Similar results were obtained when detecting discrepancies in key performance indicators of Internet service. In general, it is shown that the KLIEP model does not degrade the quality of anomaly detection compared to popular models that use statistical characteristics of the series. The advantage of using this approach is demonstrated on real data, since it does not require knowledge of the law of distribution of the time series.
Облакова Т.В., Касупович Э. Имплементация процедуры Кульбака-Лейблера к задаче о разладке во временных рядах различной природы. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2024, № 4, с. 111–127.
621.311.61:621.3.014.2 Mathematical modeling of coaxial electrogenerating elements
Loshkarev A. I. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2015-1-316
The article presents a developed mathematical model of electric describing the coaxial electrogenerating elements (EGE) with isothermal cathode and a variety of ways for current collecting. To analyze their internal state and output parameters in the arc mode we used a two-parameter local linear current-voltage characteristic (CVC). It was shown that in the case of one-sided current collection maximum power of EGE and generated magnetic field asymptotically approach to their maximum values as the length of the electrodes goes into infinity. In the case of versatile current collection maximum values of these parameters can be achieved at the final length of the electrodes. In both methods of the current collection the acceptable value of EGE electrical power loss of 25% due to electrode non-equipotentionality was achieved at their universal critical length. The calculation of which is presented.
Loshkarev A., Oblakova T. Mathematical modeling of coaxial electrogenerating elements. Маthematical Modeling and Coтputational Methods, 2015, №1 (5), pp. 3-16
Kaplunov J. D. (Keele University), Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Prikazchikov D. A. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2014-1-5767
The study deals with the plane stationary problem of elasticity theory on the motion of a vertical concentrated load along the surface of an elastic half-space with a thin coating. The authors investigated modes in the surface layer at speeds close to the resonant speed of the surface wave. The research was done within the long-wave asymptotic model for the Rayleigh wave in the case of an elastic coated half-space. The modes are classified according to the ratio between the velocity of the load and the resonance speed and to the dispersion coefficient of linear coverage. The study discovers the modes having radiation from the source. The results obtained can be generalized to more complex physical properties of the coating material, including the effects of anisotropy, viscosity and prestraining.
Kaplunov J., Oblakova T., Prikazchikov D. Near-resonant modes of the moving load in the plane problem of elasticity theory for a half-space with a thin coating. Маthematical Modeling and Coтputational Methods, 2014, №1 (1), pp. 57-67
519.2 Numerical research of persistent time series based on the ARFIMA model
Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Kasupovich E. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-4-114125
The work is devoted to methods for detecting long-term memory in financial time series. Using the method of analysis with the help of the original program code, a number of values of the real financial index S & P500 were studied, estimates of the Hurst index were obtained, and persistence was demonstrated. To solve the problem of predicting the future values of a series, the ARFIMA model is proposed, which is a generalization of the standard ARIMA model and involves the use of a fractional differentiation opera-tor. A two-stage algorithm for constructing a forecast for a series of logarithmic profits is presented and implemented. It is shown that the use of the ARFIMA model improves the quality of the forecast in comparison with ARIMA for all standard metrics.
Облакова Т.В., Касупович Э. Численное исследование персистентных временных рядов на основе модели ARFIMA. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 4, с. 114–125.
Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Pham Q. (-)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2024-3-120139
Application of generalized decomposition of polynomial chaos (RPH) in problems of quantitative estimation of uncertainty is considered. A program code has been implemented to study the influence of the input data generation scheme on the quality of the model whose coefficients are calculated by the least squares method. Standard error and sliding control values were used as quality criteria. Along with the classical method of filling the space of the input features on the scheme of the Latin hypercube, two variants of modelling coherent-optimal sample are considered: using the Markov chain and with additional thinning on the D-criterion. While the Latin hypercube sample evenly distributes points across the whole space of random variables, coherent optimum methods aim to distribute samples more densely in areas with greater variance and more rarely in areas with small variance. This approach allows for a better integration of information about the real model, which leads to a reduction in the number of samples in the planning of the experiment and as a result save costly CPU time. The implemented methods were compared on the Ishigami model function and the farm design with random values of physical characteristics. As a result of comparative modeling, it is established that in case of small range of change of random parameters, when their gradients slowly change, the design of the Latin hypercube shows the lowest values of error and sliding control. At the same time, in the case of strong non-linearity, the application of coherent-optimal design leads to a more stable and efficient model, and additional thinning according to the criterion of D-optimality gives the best result and is the most sustainable. It has also been shown that both the planning algorithms of the experiment are unstable and incorrect if there are insufficient samples.
Облакова Т.В., Фам Куок Вьет. Об оптимальной конструкции моделирования разложения полиномиального хаоса в задачах количественной оценки неопределенности. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2024, № 3, с. 120–139.
519.2 Polynomial chaos and regression based on KolmogorovGabor polynomials: comparative modeling
Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Pham Q. (-)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-4-93108
The application of the generalized expansion of polynomial chaos (PC) and models based on Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials in regression problems is considered. When choosing PC expansion, the Wiener-Askey scheme was used, which sets the correspondence between the feature distribution law and the orthogonal polynomial basis. To calculate the expansion coefficients, non-intrusive methods were used: least squares, elastic network, as well as Ivakhnenko's inductive evolutionary algorithm. Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials are used as a reference function of a polynomial neural network. Model errors and performance were calculated on a test set. Models were compared on a linear transport problem under uncertainty: the diffusion coefficient and drift were modeled by uniformly distributed random variables. It is shown that with a small interval of variation in the values of random variables, both models give good efficiency, but the PC model demonstrates a smaller spread of errors and is faster in time. For the de-cay equation with random coefficients distributed according to the Gaussian law, the influence of the correlation of these coefficients on the rate of convergence is studied. It is shown that with dependent coefficients, the best performance is observed in higher-order PC models. On the basis of comparative modeling, it has been established that the use of PC is unambiguously preferable in the following cases: a small dimension of the space of input features, a known law of distribution of input data, and correlated features. It is also shown that the use of PC with a large dimension of the space of input features is inefficient due to the rapid increase in the number of terms in the expansion, leading to a sharp increase in the time to process the task. In this case, the regression model based on the Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials in combination with the GMDH turned out to be clearly preferable.
Облакова Т.В., Фам Куок Вьет. Сравнительное моделирование на основе многочленов Колмогорова-Габора в задачах полиномиального хаоса и регрессии. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023, № 4, с. 93–108.