Rubric: "2.3.1. System analysis, management and information processing (technical sciences)"
519.8 Simulation of the confrontation between the two sides, taking into account redundancy
Chuev V. U. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Dubogray I. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-2-155163
Based on the method of dynamics of averages, a model of two parties confrontation has been developed taking into consideration the bringing up of reserves by one of the parties. It is established that timely supply of reserves can significantly affect the course of the process and its final result. It is also shown that the use of the reserve at the beginning of the action significantly increases the capabilities of a group.
Чуев В.Ю., Дубограй И.В. Моделировании противоборства двух сторон c учетом резервирования. Математическое моделирование и численные методы,2023, № 2, с. 155–163
Polyanin A. D. (Ishlinsky Institute for Problems in Mechanics), Shingareva I. K. (University of Sonora)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2021-2-96116
The problems of estimating the similarity index of inhomogeneous scientific publications containing equations and formulas are discussed for the first time. It is shown that the presence of equations and formulas (as well as figures, drawings, and tables) is a complicating factor that significantly complicates the study of such texts. It has been proved that the method for determining the similarity index of publications, based on taking into account individual mathematical symbols and parts of equations and formulas, is ineffective and can lead to erroneous and even completely absurd conclusions. Possibilities of the most popular analytical systems Antiplagiat and iThenticate, currently used in scientific journals, are investigated for detecting plagiarism and self–plagiarism. The results of processing by the iThenticate system of specific examples and specific test problems containing equations and formulas are presented. It has been established that this analytical system, when analyzing heterogeneous texts, is often unable to distinguish self– plagiarism from pseudo-self-plagiarism, seeming real (but false and imaginary) self– plagiarism. A model complex situation is considered, in which the identification of self–plagiarism requires the involvement of highly qualified specialists of a narrow profile. Various ways to improve the work of analytical systems for comparing inhomogeneous texts are proposed. This article will be useful to researchers and university teachers in physics, mathematics, and engineering, programmers dealing with problems in image recognition and research topics of digital image processing, as well as a wide range of readers who are interested in issues of plagiarism and self–plagiarism.
Полянин А.Д., Шингарева И.К. Индекс подобия математических и других научных публикаций с уравнениями и формулами и проблема идентификации самоплагиата. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2021, № 2, с. 96–116.
519.866 Mathematical modeling of a strategic advertising campaign
Chibisova A. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Shinakov D. S. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-4-109121
In this article, it is proposed to create a profit model for an ordinary advertiser who will advertise on a video platform. Video platforms provide video content services to meet the needs of users in entertainment, as well as advertising space to meet the needs of advertisers in making a profit. When watching videos, consumers can gain perceived usefulness by satisfying their need for entertainment and curiosity. For example, people watch TV shopping channels to buy or learn about products; the net usefulness of advertising for such users is posi-tive. Nevertheless, the inclusion of advertising may negatively affect some consumers, thereby reducing their usefulness. For example, users may get bored with video advertis-ing due to disinterest. Consequently, the relationship between the duration of video and advertising is a key factor affecting the perceived usefulness of consumers. In this article, we investigate the relationship between the duration of the commercial and the advertiser's profit in the short video advertising market.
Чибисова А.В., Шинаков Д.С. Математическое моделирование стратегической рекламной кампании. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023, № 4, с. 109-121.
519.85 Method of finding non-dominant solutions in decomposition problems
Kiselev V. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-1-129140
The article discusses the method of finding optimal solutions in the presence of a model of a complex technical system in the optimal design problem. The method is based on the use of nondominable, lambda optimal solutions and is a generalization of the method of Krasnoshchekov P.S., Morozov V.V., Fedorov V.V. [1]. The method allows in many cases (for lambda monotone objective functions) to reduce the number of calculations and reduce the dimension of the original problem. A numerical method for constructing lambda optimal solutions has been developed. A numerical example is given in which it is shown that the number of lambda optimal solutions consists of a single point, and the set of Pareto–optimal solutions is a curve on which it is necessary to build an ε–network to find the optimal solution.
Киселев В.В. Метод нахождения недоминируемых решений в задачах декомпозиции моделей сложных систем. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 1, с. 129–140.
Chuev V. U. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Dubogray I. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-3-125133
With the help of probabilistic methods, a model of the conflict of two interacting systems consisting of numerous structural units is proposed, taking into account the effect of delaying information about the mutual state: about the structure, number and parameters of each other's structural units. A study was made of the influence of insufficient information at a particular point in time on the outcome of the process of conflict development. It is shown that the availability of information about the state of the structural units of the opposite side can significantly increase the probability of successful development of the conflict, and with an increase in the number of units of structural units, the difference in the probability of successful development of the conflict scenario increases significantly
Чуев В.Ю., Дубограй И.В. Моделирование конфликта взаимодействующих систем с учетом эффекта получения информации о взаимном состоянии. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023, № 3, с. 125–133
Dmitriyev E. A. (Komsomolsk-na-Amure State University), Potianikhin D. A. (Komsomolsk-na-Amure State University), Odinokov V. I. (Komsomolsk-na-Amure State University), Evstigneev A. I. (Komsomolsk-na-Amure State University), Kvashnin A. E. (Komsomolsk-na-Amure State University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-2-6377
The paper presents a mathematical statement and presents the results of calculations in the problem of determining the temperature field during deformation of a strip made of aluminum alloy AD0 on a vertical-type casting and forging module of a new modification. The design of the casting and forging module assumes that one of the four walls of the mold is stationary, the second performs a rotational movement on eccentric shafts, the other two move in a vertical plane, ensuring that the deformed billet is fed down. When solving the problem, a proven numerical method is used. For a moving medium, the heat equation is written in finite difference form in a curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system. The solution of the problem is carried out by the iterative method. When calculating the initial temperature field and its further change, the heat removal on the contact surfaces of the metal with the deformation tools is taken into account. The result of the solution is the temperature field in the spatial domain for discrete times corresponding to the steps of the numerical calculation. At each step, the boundary of the liquid and solidified metal is determined
Дмитриев Э.А., Потянихин Д.А., Одиноков В.И., Евстигнеев А.И., Квашин А.Е. Моделирование поля температур при получении металлоизделий на литейно-ковочном модуле с односторонним воздействием бокового бойка и неподвижной плитой. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 2, с. 65–79
519.87 Structural theory of complex systems. Geometric theory and humanitarian aspects of modeling
Brodsky Y. I. (ФИЦ ИУ РАН)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-4-93113
We propose a formal definition of the complex system computer model, as a species of structure in the sense of N. Bourbaki — the M (Model) species of structure. The class of mathematical objects defined by the M species of structure has the following two properties: a complex created by combining mathematical objects of the M species of structure, according to the certain rules, is itself a mathematical object of the same M species of structure. The computation organization process is same for all the mathematical objects of the M species of structure and therefore can be implemented by a single universal program for the simulation calculations organization. The presence of these two properties of the M species of structure representatives allows us to build an end-to-end technology for the description, synthesis and software implementation of the complex systems models — Model Synthesis and Model-Oriented Programming. By studying the morphisms of the M species of structure base sets of the model constructed with the model synthesis help, and the invariants limiting such morphisms, we obtain a formal mathematical language for the study of complex open (changing their composition) systems. By conducting a traditional humanitarian discourse, one can always correlate it with the corresponding object of the M species of structure — translating the higher-level language of humanitarian concepts into mathematical language. The conclusions obtained using this language are, for example, that sustainable development is the modus vivendi of a complex open system and that in complex open systems, unlike closed physical systems, the conservation of laws plays a leading role (the system sacrifices power to maintain its axioms and structure), but not the conservation laws (which of course take a place).
Бродский Ю.И. Структурная теория сложных систем. Геометрическая теория и гуманитарные ас-пекты моделирования. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 4, с. 93–113.
519.2 Numerical research of persistent time series based on the ARFIMA model
Oblakova T. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Kasupovich E. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-4-114125
The work is devoted to methods for detecting long-term memory in financial time series. Using the method of analysis with the help of the original program code, a number of values of the real financial index S & P500 were studied, estimates of the Hurst index were obtained, and persistence was demonstrated. To solve the problem of predicting the future values of a series, the ARFIMA model is proposed, which is a generalization of the standard ARIMA model and involves the use of a fractional differentiation opera-tor. A two-stage algorithm for constructing a forecast for a series of logarithmic profits is presented and implemented. It is shown that the use of the ARFIMA model improves the quality of the forecast in comparison with ARIMA for all standard metrics.
Облакова Т.В., Касупович Э. Численное исследование персистентных временных рядов на основе модели ARFIMA. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 4, с. 114–125.
004.942 Modelling of industrial environment with the help of discrete numerical algorithms
Belov V. F. (МГУ им. Н.П. Огарева/АУ «Технопарк–Мордовия»), Gavryushin S. S. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Markova Y. N. (АУ «Технопарк–Мордовия»), Zankin A. I. (МГУ им. Н.П. Огарева)
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2022-1-109128
Modelling and analysis methods for economic characteristics variation in the innovation process have become a common technique, via employing diffusion equations for a medium with given parameters. The analysis results in this case significantly depend on the measurement accuracy of the industrial environment parameters, which is hard to achieve in practice. It seems, therefore, reasonable to make a transition from the diffusion paradigm to the innovation implementation paradigm, i.e., sequential modelling of the innovation states with variables and characteristics that correspond to the practical measurement and control techniques. Applying the described approach, the economic state dynamics of the innovation development work, manufacturing and implementation can be described by systems of ordinary differential equations, where the initial conditions and coefficients depend on the parameters of the industry’s internal andexternal environments. Two discrete mathematical models developed in this work enable control of the industrial environment parameters, via application of practical measurement methods. The first discrete model is in the form of a functional (mapping), which enables conversion of the actual internal industrial environment parameters in the beginning of the innovation scaling into the coefficients of the differential equations and initial conditions that reflect the results of manufacturing process preparation. The initial data is available from the EPR data base of the industry. The second discrete model is realized as a cellular automaton. An autonomous model of the external industrial environment uses the data that can be measured by the well-developed marketing methods. The results of the computational experiments support the hypothesis of transition from the diffusion model paradigm to the paradigm of the sequential modelling of the innovation economic states.
Белов В.Ф., Гаврюшин С.С., Маркова Ю.Н., Занкин А.И. Моделирование среды предприятия с использованием дискретных вычислительных алгоритмов.Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2022, № 1, с. 109–128