519.8 Modeling the conflict of interacting systems, taking into account the effect of obtaining information on the mutual state

Chuev V. U. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University), Dubogray I. V. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University)

PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT MODEL, INTERACTING SYSTEMS, EFFECTIVE CONFRONTATION SPEED, PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS, MARKOV PROCESS


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-3-125133


With the help of probabilistic methods, a model of the conflict of two interacting systems consisting of numerous structural units is proposed, taking into account the effect of delaying information about the mutual state: about the structure, number and parameters of each other's structural units. A study was made of the influence of insufficient information at a particular point in time on the outcome of the process of conflict development. It is shown that the availability of information about the state of the structural units of the opposite side can significantly increase the probability of successful development of the conflict, and with an increase in the number of units of structural units, the difference in the probability of successful development of the conflict scenario increases significantly


Boulding K.E. Conflict and Defence. A General Theory. New York, Harper & Brothers, 1962, 349 p.
Kimbrough E., Laughren K., Sheremeta R. War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2020, vol. 178, pp. 998–1013.
Acemoglu D., Wolitzky A. Cycles of conflict: An economic model. AmericanEconomic Review, 2014, vol. 104, no. 4, pp. 1350–1367.
Alexandrov A.A., Dimitrienko Yu.I. Mathematical and computer modeling-the basis of modern engineering sciences. Mathematical modeling and Computational Methods, 2014, no. 1, pp. 3–4.
Zarubin V.S., Kuvyrkin G.N. Special features of mathematical modeling of technical instruments. Mathematical modeling and Computational Methods, 2014, no. 1, pp. 5–17.
Venttsel E.S. Issledovanie operatsiy: zadachi, printsipy, metodologiya [Operations research: objectives, principles, methodology]. Moscow, URSS Publ., 2007, 208 p.
Tkachenko P.N. Matematicheskie modeli boevykh deistviy [Mathematical models of combat operations]. Moscow, Sovetskoe radio Publ., 1969, 240 p.
Hillier F.S., Lieberman G.J. Introduction to Operations Research. New York, McGraw-Hill, 2005, 998 p.
Chuev Yu.V. Issledovanie operatsiy v voennom dele [Operations research in military arts]. Moscow, Voenizdat Publ., 1970, 270 p.
Alekseev O.G., Anisimov V.G., Anisimov E.G. Markovskie modeli boya [Markov’s battle models]. Moscow, the USSR Ministry of Defense Publ., 1985, 85 p.
Venttsel E.S. Teoriya veroyatnostey [Probability theory]. Moscow, KnoRus Publ., 2016, 658 p.
Ventzel E.S., Ovcharov V.Y. Teoriya sluchaynykh protsessov i yeyo inzhenernyye prilozheniya [The theory of stochastic processes and its engineering applications].Moscow, KnoRus Publ., 2015, 448 p.
Chuev V.Yu., Dubograi I.V. Stochasticism and determinism in simulation bilateral warfare. Herald of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University. Series Natural Sciences, 2017, no. 4, pp. 16–28.
Chuev V.Yu., Dubogray I.V. A "mixed" model of the confrontation of numerous groups with linear dependencies on the time of the effective speed of strikes by units of the parties. Mathematical modeling and Computational Methods, 2022, no. 2, pp. 102–113.
Shamahan L. Dynamics of Model Battles. New York, Physics Department, State University of New York, 2005, 43 p.
Taylor J.G. Force-on-force attrition modeling. Military Applications Section of Operations Research Society of America, 1980, 320 p


Чуев В.Ю., Дубограй И.В. Моделирование конфликта взаимодействующих систем с учетом эффекта получения информации о взаимном состоянии. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023, № 3, с. 125–133



Download article

Количество скачиваний: 111