330.43, 519.23 Dynamics of macroeconomic and bilateral trade's indicators of the BRICS countries and the USA
Malinetsky G. G. (Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Scienсes), Makhov S. A. (Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Scienсes)
MATHEMATICAL MODELING, MACROECONOMICS, SINGLE PRODUCT APPROACH, EXTRA-TRADE, AUTO REGRESSION, DYNAMIC EQUATIONS
doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-1-112123
The study's aim is to predict main trends and create scenarios for the economic development of BRICS countries (Brazil, India, China, Russia, South Africa) and the USA. Regression autonomous macro models were built, as well as a model of trade between them. The autonomous submodels use Population, Fixed Capital, Gross Domestic Product and Gross Capital Formation as key indicators. Autoregressive equations describe the dynamics of these variables. The resulting system of equations allowed us to describe the historical dynamics of demographic and macroeconomic indicators from 1990 to 2015 and to do a forecast until 2030. In the trade submodel bilateral trade flows link with gross domestic products of the economies. The relationship is described by the power dependence of the export flow on the gross domestic product of both trading partners. Unlike gravity-type models, the regression equation parameters are assumed to be constant for each pair of trading partners over the entire predicted time interval. The calculations showed that the models satisfactorily describe the dynamics of monotonically changing indicators and therefore can be used as a simple tool for forecasting the national and regional economy.
Glazyev S.Yu. et al. Perspectives and strategic priorities for BRICS ascention: a scientific report for the VII BRICS Summit (edited by V.A. Sadovnichy, Yu.V. Yakovets, A.A. Akaev). Moscow, MISK Publ., 2014, 390 p.
Sharova E.A. Mutual trade between BRICS countries today. National Strategy Issues, 2016, no. 2 (35), pp. 150–174.
Gvishiani D.M. Metodologicheskie problemy modelirovaniya global'nogo razvitiya [Methodological problems of modeling global development]. Moscow, Institute of Systems Research, 1977, preprint no. 1, 28 p.
Akaev A.A. et al. Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie global'nogo, regional'nogo i nacional'nogo razvitiya [Modeling and forecasting of global, regional and national development]. Moscow: URSS, 2011, 486 p.
Sadovnichy V.A. et al. Analiz i modelirovanie mirovoj i stranovoj dinamiki: metodologiya i bazovye modeli [Analysis and modeling of global and country dynamics: methodology and basic models]. Moscow, Uchitel', Moscow ed., 2015, 272 p.
Makhov S.A. BRICS trade dynamic model. Keldysh institute preprints, 2016, no. 128, 16 p.
Makhov S.A. A dynamic macromodel of the BRICS countries taking into account trade. Keldysh institute preprints, 2017, no. 139, 20 p.
Makhov S.A. The long-term empirical macro model of world dynamics. Computer Research and Modeling, 2013, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 883–891.
Pirogov G.G., Bogoroditsky V.K., Borozdin I.I., Tatarnikova M.V., Fedorovsky Yu.P. Modelirovanie mezhdunarodnyh vneshneekonomicheskih svyazej v modelyah global'nogo razvitiya [Modeling of international foreign economic relations in models of global development]. Moscow, Institute of Systems Research, 1980, preprint, 54 p.
Dubovsky S.V. Prognozirovanie rossijskogo ekonomicheskogo rosta i finansovoj dinamiki v usloviyah globalizacii i nestabil'nosti [Forecasting Russian economic growth and financial dynamics in the context of globalization and instability]. Social Sciences and Contemporary World, 2005, no. 3, pp. 129–136.
National Accounts — Analysis of Main Aggregates (AMA) [Electronic resource]. Access mode: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama (accessed: 30.10.2022)
The World Bank. World development indicators online. 2020 [Electronic resource]. Access mode: https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/WDI_excel.zip (accessed: 30.10.2022).
UNCTADstat. Data Center online. 2020 [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx?sCS_Cho-senLang=en (accessed: 30.10.2022).
Rosstat. BRICS Joint Statistical Publication: 2015; Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Moscow, «Statistics of Russia», 2015, 235 p.
Akimov A.V. 2300 god: global'nye problemy i Rossiya [2300: Global problems and Russia]. Moscow, Eastern University, 2008, 251 p.
Tinbergen J. Shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economic policy. New York, Twentieth Century Fund, 1962, 330 p.
Anderson J. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. The American Economic Review, 1979, vol. 69, no. 1, pp. 106–116.
Troekurova I.S., Pelevina K.A. Gravity models of foreign trade of BRICS countries. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law, 2014, vol. 14, iss. 1, pp. 133–142
Малинецкий Г.Г., Махов С.А. Динамика макроэкономических показателей и взаимной торговли стран БРИКС и США. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023, No 1, с. 112–123.
Download article
Количество скачиваний: 124