#### 338.001.36 Mathematical model for the formation of supply chains of raw materials from the commodity exchange under risk based on the profit trajectory for previous periods redundancy

##### Rogulin R. S. (Vladivostok State University)

doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2023-2-129154

The formation of the supply chain of raw materials is closely related to the production problems of woodworking enterprises. Construction of supply chains for raw materials and the optimal calculation of daily production have been hot topics since the beginning of the second industrial revolution. This article discusses the enterprise of the Primorsky Territory of the woodworking industry, which does not have plots for rent. The purpose of the work is to solve the problem of building a supply chain of raw materials, taking into account the daily loading of production facilities and finding the optimal solution. The source of raw materials is the commodity exchange, where lots appear daily randomly in different mining regions. In the scientific literature, there are many ways to calculate the best profit value, taking into account many restrictions, but they do not take into account many features that are important for woodworking enterprises. Based on a review of the scientific literature, this article presents a mathematical model that acts as a decisionmaking mechanism on each individual day, and it differs in that it can take into account the coefficient of useful volume of raw materials that will reach the warehouse and travel time. The model was tested on the data of the Russian Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange and a company in Primorsky Krai. The result of testing the model is the calculated optimal profit trajectory for each set of data on the volume of raw materials, the time of lots in transit, as well as many important indicators for any production: profit volume, production volume of goods. The analysis of the received solutions showed that there are difficulties in planning supply chains and production volumes. The regions are analyzed as sources of raw materials, from which regions and when it is worth buying raw materials. The shortcomings and positive aspects of the mathematical model are given

Рогулин Р.С. Математическая модель формирования цепочек поставок сырья с товарно-сырьевой биржи в условиях риска с опорой на траекторию прибыли за предыдущие периоды. Математическое моделирование и численные методы, 2023,№ 2, с. 129–154.