Based on the theory of Markov processes the model of "poorly organized" battle was developed. Formulae for calculating its basic parameters at different initial numbers of the opposing sides were obtained. A comparison of the results of modeling a battle using probabilistic and deterministic models was performed. It was found that the dynamics model errors of the average are primarily affected by the balance of forces of the opposing sides in the beginning of the battle. It was shown that in case of military groups of similar forces the first-strike attack is of significant importance. When one of the warring parties at the beginning of the battle has a great advantage, the influence of first-strike attack is negligible. An increase in the influence of first-strike attack on the expected losses of a strong hand, and a reduction of its impact on the expected losses of the weaker party, as the number of groups involved in the fight increases proportionally, is also shown.
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