551.048 Modelling influence of outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on probability density of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations

Frolov A. V. (Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

THE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL, PROBABILITY DENSITY DISTRIBUTION, FOKKER — PLANCK — KOLMOGOROV EQUATION, NONLINEAR HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEM, BIMODALITY.


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2016-3-7992


The paper considers long-term fluctuations of the Caspian Sea level as a nonlinear system output with positive and negative feedbacks. The Caspian Sea model with due consideration of an outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is designed. Density distribution of the sea level is obtained as a solution to the corresponding Fokker — Planck — Kolmogorov equation. The bimodal probability density of the sea level distribution, which meets the endorheic Caspian Sea (if you cut off the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay), is shown to turn into the single-mode probability density in case of simultaneous influence of evaporation and seawater outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on the sea level.


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Frolov A. Modelling influence of outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on probability density of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations. Маthematical Modeling and Coтputational Methods, 2016, №3 (11), pp. 79-92



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