551.5:517 Modelling global climate stabilisation by controlled emission of stratospheric aerosol

Parkhomenko V. P. (Bauman Moscow State Technical University/Computing Centre of RAS)

CLIMATE MODELING, GEO-ENGINEERING, CLIMATE STABILIZATION


doi: 10.18698/2309-3684-2014-2-115126


During the last decades we are witnessing climate changes. Scientists assume global warming to be the result of man-generated increase of green house gases in the atmosphere, the most important one being СО2. The article deals with the problem and describes cutting-edge solutions for stabilising climate. The research makes use of a seasonal global combined threedimensional hydrodynamic model of climate. This model of climate includes model of the World Ocean with real depths and configuration of continents, model of evolution of sea ice and energy — moisture balance model of the atmosphere. The first stage covers estimation of climate change through 2100 following IPCC A2 СО2 increase scenario. The calculations yield rise of average annual surface temperature of the atmosphere by 3,5 С. A number of calculations have been made to estimate possibility of stabilising climate at the level of 2010 by means of controlled release of sulphate aerosol into stratosphere. The aerosol will reflect and disperse a part of the coming solar radiation. We have calculated concentration (albedo) of the aerosol from 2010 to 2100 which will enable us to stabilise the average annual temperature of the surface layer of atmosphere. We have shown that by this way it is impossible to achieve the seasonal uniform approximation to the existing climate, although it is possible to significantly reduce the greenhouse warming effect. Provided that the aerosol is distributed evenly in space in stratosphere, we can stabilize the average annual temperature of the atmosphere, herewith in middle and low latitudes the climate will be colder by 0,1…0,2 С and in high latitudes it will be warmer by 0,2…1,2 С. Besides, these differences are essentially seasonal in nature, they increase in winter. If we stop releasing the aerosol in 2080 the average annual global temperature of the atmosphere will rise, reaching the former value without the aerosol by the year 2100.


[1] Kiotskiy Protokol k ramochnoy konventsii OON ob izmeneniyakh klimata. The Kyoto Protocol for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The United Nations, 1998, 26 p.
[2] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) site: http://www.ipcc.ch/
[3] Budyko M.I. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. Meteorology and Hydrology, 1974, no. 2, pp. 91–97.
[4] Israel Yu.A. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. Meteorology and Hydrology, 2005, no. 10, pp. 5–9.
[5] Robock A. 20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea. Bull. of the Atomic Scientists, 2008, 64, no. 2, pp. 14–18.
[6] Weaver A.J., Eby M., Wiebe E.C., Bitz C.M., Duffy P.B., Ewen T.L., Fanning A.F., Holland M.M., MacFadyen A., Matthews H.D., Meissner K.J., Saenko O., Schmittner A., Wang H., Yoshimori M. The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model description, climatology, and applications to past, present and
future climates. Atmos-Ocean, 2001, vol. 39, pр. 361−428.
[7] Chernokulsky A.V, Eliseev, A.V., Mokhov I.I. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. Meteorology and Hydrology, 2010, no. 5, pp. 16−25.
[8] Eliseev, A.V., Mokhov I.I. Izvestiya Rossiykoy akademii nauk. Fizika atmosfery i okeana — Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics of Atmosphere and Ocean, 2009, no. 2, vol. 45, pp. 232–244.
[9] Eliseev, A.V., Mokhov, I.I. Karpenko A.A. Optika atmosfery i okeana. Optics of Atmosphere and Ocean, 2009, no. 6, vol. 22, pp. 521−526.
[10] Monin A.S. Vvedenie v teoriyu klimata. Introduction to the Theory of Climate. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1982, 296 p.
[11] Marsh R., Edwards N.R., Shepherd J.G. Development of a fast climate model (C-GOLDSTEIN) for Earth System Science. SOC, 2002, no. 83, р. 54.
[12] Parkhomenko V.P. Vestnik MGTU im. N.E. Baumana. Seriya Estesvennye Nauki. Herald of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University. Series: Natural Sciences, 2011, spets.vypusk “Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie” [special issue Mathematical Modelling], pp.186–200.
[13] Basarab M.A. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie i chislennye metody. Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Methods, 2014, no. 1, pp. 18–35.
[14] Parkhomenko V.P. Inzhenernyi zhurnal: nauka i innovatsii. Engineering Journal: Science and Innovations, 2012, issue 2. Available at: http://engjournal.ru/catalog/mathmodel/climate/45.html
[15] Parkhomenko V.P. Inzhenernyi zhurnal: nauka i innovatsii. Engineering Journal: Science and Innovations, 2013, issue 9. Available at: http://engjournal.ru/catalog/mathmodel/climate/962.html
[16] Arakawa A., Lamb V. Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the ucla general circulation model. In: Methods in Computational Physics. Academic Press, 1977, vol. 17, рp. 174−207.
[17] Shepherd J.G. Overcoming the CFL time-step limitation: a stable iterative implicit numerical scheme for slowly evolving advection-diffusion systems. Ocean Modelling, 2002, vol. 4, рp. 17−28.
[18] Kondratyev K.Ya, Moskalenko N.I., Pozdnyakov D.V. Atmosferny Earozol. Atmospheric Aerosol. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1983, 125 p.
[19] Kondratyev K.Ya. Ekologicheskaya khimiya. Ecological Chemistry, 1998, no. 7(3), pp. 145−163.
[20] Robock A. The Mount St. Helens volcanic eruption of 18 may 1980: Minimal climatic effect. Science, 1981, vоl. 212, no. 4501, pp. 1383−1384.


Parkhomenko V. Modelling global climate stabilisation by controlled emission of stratospheric aerosol. Маthematical Modeling and Coтputational Methods, 2014, №2 (2), pp. 115-126



Download article

Колличество скачиваний: 149